Fermi Paradox — Full Map of Solutions

Rare Earth
Earlier filter 18%

GAbiogenesis is difficult5.0%

GMulticellur life is difficult3.0%

GIntelligence is difficult3.0%

PSolar system is special2.0%

GNo time for all transitions2.0%

PEarth atmosphere remains stable1.5%

PNo space catastrophes1.5%

Anthropic shadow
Past x-risks not happened 7%

PNo peak oil in 20 century1.0%

PNo nuclear war in 20 century2.0%

GAnthropic shadow2.0%

GIf survival is anthropic – we are alone1.5%

PCovid was mild0.5%

Later Filter
Existential risks 20%

GInevitable universal extinction: bio risks, particle accelerators, nuclear wars, complexity, universal limits of growths, drones-AI5.0%

GShort period of activity of any civ4.0%

GDevelopment limit – stagnation at 21 century level2.0%

PCivilizational rot1.5%

GPaperclip maximizer destroys everything with the speed of light2.0%

PAlliens are afraid of s-risks and destroy themselves without traces0.5%

PSpace travel is very dangerous (enables civ destroying weapons)0.5%

GSIA implies that Later Filter is more likely2.0%

G"Why I Hope the Search for Extraterrestrial Life Finds Nothing"0.5%

GWe will destroy the whole universe via false vacuum decay0.5%

GFalse vacuum bubbles almost everywhere0.3%

GAbove certain IQ level, life become meaningless and suicide follows0.2%

No signaling to us
Signaling is physically difficult 13.5%

GSpeed of light limit and very remote aliens3.0%

GDistance and weak signals combined3.0%

GIncomprehensible signals1.0%

PWe don't search enough2.0%

PWe search on wrong frequency0.5%

GEqual speed of travel and signals0.5%

GSilence is the message1.0%

GAlien communications are well encripted, or on gravitanal waves or entagled particles0.8%

GMessages to young civilizations can be only hostile like SETI-attack, so mature civ don't send0.7%

PAdvanced aliens don't create visible signals or structures1.0%

Dark forest 9.5%

GNot interested in us4.0%

GDark forest3.0%

GSpace wars are very destructive0.5%

PLocal dark forest: UFOs hiding from each other0.5%

GAnthropic selfselection: They will kill us as soon as they will find us0.5%

PWe are the first and will kill all aliens0.5%

PReverse Dark forrest (To increase uncertianty of our bad AI about aliens)0.3%

PThey create high status (Hanson)0.2%

No space travel to us 4.5%

GSpace travel is very difficult for unknown reasons1.5%

GGrabby aliens – they are far1.5%

GPercolation theory (partial colonization)0.7%

PBurning cosmic commons (they passed us)0.5%

PSelf-limited space exploration to prevent rioting colonies0.3%

No visible astroingeneering 5%

GMiniaturisation: black holes computations1.5%

PThey choose miniaturisation path - alien nanobots1.5%

PThey are very ecological and don't damage space1.0%

PThey are very economical and don't waste energy1.0%

They are here 6.8%

GZoo, Quarantine1.5%

GNatural reserve (Zoo with weak control)0.5%

PWe are not ready for the contact1.0%

PWe are not ready to join Galactic Federation0.4%

PGovernments keep them in secret0.2%

PWe are occupied (MIB)0.2%

PUFO tourists0.4%

PUFO as deceptors of their true nature0.3%

PUFO as remnants or space animals0.3%

PSpace animals or robotic remnanats0.3%

PAlien nanobots in Solar system0.4%

PThey becomes invisible: fields, dark matter0.3%

GBerserkers – they wait to kill0.5%

PSignal exists but as SETI-attack0.5%

Other ideas 13.7%

GWidespread Wireheading2.0%

GThey hibernate for better times at the end of the universe1.5%

GWe are in a simulation created by aliens1.5%

PWe are in a simulation created by Peperclipper and it doesn't want to distract us from its research of singularity0.3%

GInter-dimensional or between-branches travel is easier and more interesting1.0%

GRetrocausal censorship against time-travel paradoxes0.5%

GDeath in Damascus paradox0.3%

GEvo devo – we will create false vacuum0.2%

PWe are they – Directed panspermia0.7%

PFermi paradox and panspermia siblings in our galaxy0.6%

PGod and spirits are aliens0.4%

PPaleocontact0.3%

GHybrid solution: combination of Earth rareness, high extinction rates and nearlight speed of exploration by remote grabby aleins3.0%

GFermi paraodx self-dependency: if aliens were here, we would ask "why they are here?"0.2%

GAliens often use civilization-level quantum suicide to solve their problems0.2%

Similar to Fermi paradox

PFermi paradox of human past0.3%

GFermi paradox of no time travelers from the future0.5%

GFermi paradox of no travelers from other dimensions0.2%

Full map of possible solutions of the Fermi paradox